Homelessness in Scotland predicted to rise by over 50% by 2041

homeless-man-stockThe number of people experiencing the worst forms of homelessness is expected to rise by 50% on current levels over next 25 years, according to a new report by Crisis.

There are currently 11,800 people across Scotland either sleeping rough, staying in hostels, living in unsuitable temporary accommodation, sofa surfing or experiencing other forms of the worst types of homelessness such as squats, refuges or sleeping in cars.

Now new expert analysis conducted for Crisis by Heriot-Watt University has revealed that this figure is expected to rise to 12,200 by 2021 before accelerating to 18,100 - a rise of 53% on current levels - in 2041.

image001 (4)Initiatives such as the Scottish Government’s pledge to build 35,000 homes for social rent are expected to slow the rate of homelessness but only in the shorter term.

Launched as part of Crisis’ 50th anniversary year and drawing on the most up-to-date sources available, the analysis aims to provide the most complete picture to-date of the worst forms of homelessness, as well as 25-year forecasts for each category across Scotland, England and Wales.

The report estimates that at any one time in 2016 across Scotland:

  • 800 households people slept rough (on one identified night)
  • 5,200 households were sofa surfing
  • 2,100 households were living in unsuitable temporary accommodation
  • 2,300 households were living in hostels
  • 1,400 households living in other circumstances, including squats, women’s refuges, winter night shelters, sleeping in tents, cars or public transport.
  • Scotland estimates and forecasts

    2011

    2016

    2021

    2026

    2031

    2036

    2041

    Rough Sleep

    900

    800

    700

    700

    800

    1,300

    1,500

    Hostels

    2,000

    2,300

    2,300

    2,300

    2,300

    2,300

    2,300

    Unsuit TA

    2,700

    2,100

    2,300

    2,800

    3,100

    3,500

    4,400

    Sofa Surfing

    6,200

    5,200

    5,600

    6,400

    7,400

    7,300

    7,600

    Other

    1600

    1400

    1300

    1500

    1600

    2200

    2300

    Total

    13,400

    11,800

    12,200

    13,700

    15,200

    16,600

    18,100

    Drawing on detailed economic modelling, the report warns that if current policies continue unchanged, the most acute forms of homelessness are likely to keep rising, with rough sleeping almost doubling the 2016 figure to a predicted number of 1,500 by 2041. In the shorter-term, sofa surfing is estimated to rise by nearly a quarter (23%) in the next decade, while the number of households in unsuitable temporary accommodation is set to increase by a third.

    Across Britain, rough sleeping is forecast to rise by 76% in the next decade unless the respective governments take long-term action to tackle it.

    In response to the report’s findings, Crisis is calling on the public to join its Everybody In campaign – a national movement for permanent change aimed at ending the worst forms of homelessness once and for all.

    image004Jon Sparkes, chief executive of Crisis, said: “This year Crisis marks its 50th anniversary, but that’s little cause for celebration. We still exist because homelessness still exists, and today’s report makes it only too clear that unless we take action as a society, the problem is only going to get worse with every year that passes. That means more people sleeping on our streets, in doorways or bus shelters, on the sofas of friends or family, or getting by in hostels and B&Bs. In order to tackle this, it’s crucial we first understand the scale of the problem.

    “The Scottish Government has already committed to building 50,000 new affordable homes, with 35,000 of them available for social rent by 2021. This will contribute to a slow-down on the number of people affected by homelessness. They are also committed to eradicating child poverty with an ambitious Bill currently going through Parliament. Now is the time for action and we look forward to working with the Scottish Government to find solutions and bring these forecasts down.

    “We can’t do this in isolation though, which is why we’re calling on the public to back our Everybody In campaign and help us build a movement for change. Together we can find the answers, and make sure those in power listen to them.”

    Great Britain estimates and forecasts

    2011

    2016

    2021

    2026

    2031

    2036

    2041

    Rough Sleep

    6,100

    9,100

    11,000

    16,000

    19,100

    28,900

    40,100

    Hostels

    42,900

    37,200

    37,200

    37,200

    37,200

    37,200

    37,200

    Unsuit TA

    10,100

    19,300

    20,700

    37,300

    45,700

    74,300

    117,500

    Sofa Surfing

    42,900

    68,300

    70,200

    75,600

    92,700

    101,700

    119,100

    Other

    17,900

    26,000

    27,900

    36,100

    43,400

    59,200

    78,500

    Total

    119,900

    159,900

    167,000

    202,200

    238,100

    301,300

    392,400

    Everybody In aims to bring people together to change opinions, raise awareness and ultimately end homelessness for good, and includes a library of first-hand accounts showing the reality of homelessness in Britain.

    Alongside this, Crisis will be working towards a national plan to end the worst forms of homelessness once and for all, bringing together everything needed to make this happen, including consultations in all three nations and a large scale programme of research.

    Today’s report is the first of two parts, with the second - due for publication in the Autumn - to examine ‘wider homelessness’, including people at risk of homelessness or those who have already experienced it, such as households that have been served an eviction notice and those in other forms of temporary accommodation.

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