Tom Barclay: You can’t tackle child poverty without homes

For many families across Scotland, child poverty did not pause over Christmas. It tightened its grip. The latest homelessness figures show 10,180 children living in temporary accommodation in Scotland. That’s not a home. It’s a holding pattern.

These aren’t just numbers. These are children sometimes doing homework in crowded bed and breakfast accommodation and trying to sleep in one room. Families sharing bathrooms with strangers. Parents lying awake, counting weeks that turn into months.

At Kingdom Group, we see this up close every day. Our mission is to provide more than a home, because we know that handing over a set of keys is just the beginning. Last year, our Tenancy Support Services Team delivered over £1.35 million of estimated financial gains, including over £999,000 of benefits claims for customers.

But the stark reality is that, despite everything we do, we’re barely scratching the surface of Scotland’s child poverty emergency.

The numbers tell a grim story. Around 240,000 children in Scotland live in relative poverty after housing costs. That’s nearly one in four. Across the UK, almost three quarters of children in poverty live in households where at least one parent works. This isn’t about worklessness. This is about an economy that fails working families.

Shelter Scotland’s summary of the latest figures still shows more than 10,000 children living in temporary accommodation in Scotland. Couples with children spend an average of 386 days in temporary accommodation. Shelter Scotland has highlighted that more children are in temporary accommodation in Edinburgh alone than in the whole of Wales. At current rates, it would take 28 years to get every child out of temporary accommodation. Twenty-eight years. That’s not a plan. That’s an admission of failure.

In March 1999, Tony Blair set out a 20-year mission to eradicate child poverty. That generation has now grown up. Many are parents themselves. By 2010/11, the number of children in relative low income after housing costs had fallen by 600,000 compared with 1997/98. But since 2010/11, the number of children in relative poverty after housing costs across the UK has risen by 900,000, reaching 4.5 million. The dial moved, then moved back.

Child poverty is complex. It touches income, employment, education, health, family stability. Governments respond with interventions across all these areas. But there is a foundation that underpins everything else. Without it, every other intervention is built on sand. That foundation is housing.

You can’t help a child learn if they don’t know where they’ll sleep next month. You can’t support a parent in to employment if they’re fighting eviction. You can’t address a family’s health needs if their home is cold, damp, or overcrowded. Temporary accommodation means longer travel, disrupted routines, missed school days. The UK Government’s own child poverty strategy, published in December, acknowledges this. It states that children in temporary accommodation should be recognised as experiencing one of the deepest forms of poverty.

Sir Harry Burns, Scotland’s former Chief Medical Officer, has spent decades researching what happens to children who grow up in these circumstances. His findings are stark: they are more likely to fail at school and struggle to find work. There are biological consequences too. A chaotic childhood means chronically elevated stress hormones, which increase the risk of serious illness later in life. This isn’t just about the here and now. Insecure housing in childhood casts a long shadow.

Our work shows that housing security means more than handing over keys. It means stepping in when families face crisis.

When a Kingdom tenant passed away, his 16-year-old son faced losing not just his father but his home. The boy had health conditions that meant he couldn’t manage a tenancy alone. His grandparents came to our office in tears.

“His dad did everything for him,” they told us. “How is he going to cope?” Our team worked with the family to find a solution: the grandfather moved in permanently. We then helped him navigate Pension Credit, Housing Benefit, Child Disability Payment, and a Funeral Support Payment. In total, the family accessed over £11,000 they wouldn’t have received otherwise.

When families have security of tenure, when they’re not worrying about where they’ll live next month, they can start to address everything else. The stress reduces. Children’s attendance at school improves. Parents can think about training and employment. Health stabilises. It’s not magic. It’s what happens when you build on solid ground.

The Scottish Government deserves credit for recent action. As stated in the Scottish Government’s official Budget 2026-27 spending review, £61.5m is committed to the Tackling Child Poverty Fund, a £49m increase from the previous year. There’s a new £50m Whole Family Support package to help parents into employment. The Scottish Child Payment is rising to £28.20 per week, with a higher rate from 2027/28 that brings the weekly payment for children under one to £40.

Around 330,000 children will benefit. On housing, there’s £926m for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. The UK Government’s December strategy commits to lifting 550,000 children out of relative low income, including 450,000 through removing the two-child benefit limit and announces £39 billion for a new Social and Affordable Homes Programme in England. These are significant commitments.

But the latest figures tell a troubling story. Record numbers in temporary accommodation. New social housing supply slowing due to capital budget pressures. Private rents continuing to rise. The Scottish Government declared a national housing emergency in May 2024, and the Scottish Parliament backed that position on 15 May.

In the UK strategy, housing appears under ‘Driving down the cost of essentials’, in a list of ten actions alongside school uniforms, transport, and digital access. The strategy recognises that housing is fundamental. It says so explicitly. Yet it treats housing as a component, not as the foundation.

So despite these welcome investments, current approaches aren’t working at either the scale or with the speed required.

The scale of the challenge was underlined in December when figures showed the lowest number of social homes beginning construction since records began in 1997. Just 3,031 social homes started in the year to September 2025. As SFHA chief executive Richard Meade put it: “If the Scottish Government, or indeed anyone who aspires to be the next Scottish Government, has any hope of ending the housing emergency, reducing child poverty, or growing our economy, then they must arrest this collapse in housebuilding urgently.”

What, then, does Scotland need to do differently?

Recognise affordable housing as anti-poverty infrastructure. Not one budget line among many. The foundation on which everything else is built. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has been clear: the supply of affordable housing is key to tackling child poverty. Shelter Scotland puts a number on it: we need a minimum of 15,693 social homes every year. Social housing keeps an estimated 40,000 to 60,000 people above the poverty line in Scotland, thanks to the affordability of social rents. This is proven infrastructure. This is what works.

Commit to sustained, multi-year capital investment. Housing associations and local authorities can’t plan and deliver at scale when funding swings year to year. We need the certainty to build.

Prioritise larger family homes. The data shows poverty rates have risen fastest for families with three or more children. We need homes that fit the families who need them most.

At Kingdom Group, we’re ready to do more. We have the expertise, the track record, and the relationships in communities. Our partnerships with local authorities, sector partners such as the Fife Housing Association Alliance, and other housing associations show what’s possible when we work together. But we need both the Scottish and UK Governments to match our ambition with investment that reflects the scale of this crisis.

Scotland’s child poverty targets are legally binding: below 10% by 2030/31. At the current trajectory, we will miss them. But these aren’t just numbers on a page. They’re a promise to a quarter of a million children and their families.

Every child deserves a stable, warm, safe, affordable home. A place to do homework. A place to sleep without worrying about what comes next. A foundation from which to build a life.

We know what works. We know what’s needed. The only question is whether we have the will to deliver it.