New Scottish Government modelling estimates almost one in three households – 32% of the total – will be in fuel poverty between October and December.

That would represent an increase of around 20,000 households compared with the estimated 800,000 affected between July and September. The number experiencing the most severe hardship is also expected to rise.

Around 440,000 households are forecast to be in extreme fuel poverty during the final three months of the year – equivalent to 17% of all Scottish households.

That is another increase of around 20,000 compared with the period between July and September. It means that 53% of all households estimated to be in fuel poverty this autumn will be classed as experiencing extreme fuel poverty.

The estimates have been published after the latest Ofgem energy price cap was confirmed. For October to December, the average gas unit charge used in the Scottish Government modelling rises from 7.3p to 8p per kWh – an increase of 8.8%.

The average electricity unit charge increases more modestly from 26.1p to 26.3p per kWh. Gas standing charges rise by 2.2%, while the average electricity standing charge falls by 4.1%.

The figures suggest people living in social housing will be particularly exposed to rising costs. An estimated 55% of households in the social rented sector will be in fuel poverty between October and December, compared with 39% of private rented households.

Among owner-occupiers the estimated rate is substantially lower at 22%. The national figures also mask significant differences between urban and rural Scotland.

Around 670,000 fuel-poor households are expected to be in urban areas and 140,000 in rural areas during the October-to-December period. The way fuel poverty is measured in Scotland recognises the additional costs faced by households living in remote rural areas, remote small towns and islands.

Under Scotland’s statutory definition, a household is considered to be in fuel poverty when the cost of maintaining a satisfactory heating regime exceeds 10% of its adjusted net income and the money remaining after housing, fuel and certain other costs is insufficient to maintain an acceptable standard of living.

The threshold rises to more than 20% of adjusted net income for extreme fuel poverty. The latest forecast represents a reversal of some of the improvement recorded in Scotland’s most recent full household survey.

The 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey estimated 732,000 households – 28.7% of the total – were in fuel poverty. That was down substantially from 859,000 households, or 33.9%, in 2023.

Extreme fuel poverty also fell from 491,000 households in 2023 to 357,000 in 2024.

The Scottish Government said the improvement largely reflected energy prices falling during 2024. Subsequent price increases have pushed the modelled figures upwards again.

The calculations use underlying information from the 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey and apply subsequent changes in energy prices.

They do not account for changes in household income, housing costs or improvements in the energy efficiency of people’s homes since the 2024 survey.

The report said the figures should be regarded as providing a “broad indication” of current fuel poverty rather than a definitive measurement of the number of households currently affected.