Barratt Redrow posts solid Q3 and predicts ‘limited impact’ of Middle East conflict

Barratt Redrow posts solid Q3 and predicts 'limited impact' of Middle East conflict

Barratt Redrow has reported a “solid” third quarter, with resilient private reservation rates and a strengthened forward‑sales position helping the housebuilder stay on track to meet full‑year expectations.

Chief executive David Thomas said the group had delivered a stable performance despite a more uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

“Barratt Redrow had a solid third quarter, with a resilient reservation rate underpinned by good customer demand,” he said. “Despite heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, we expect the Middle East conflict to have limited impact on FY26 performance, given our strong forward sales position and advanced build programme.”

Thomas added that the group’s financial strength and track record of navigating volatility would underpin its approach through the remainder of the year.

“We will continue to closely monitor developments while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, selective land investment and rigorous cost control.”

Private reservation rates excluding PRS and multi‑unit sales rose 3.2% to 0.64 per outlet per week, up from 0.62 a year earlier. Including PRS and MUS, the rate increased to 0.67, reflecting a higher contribution from institutional and bulk buyers.

Sales incentives remained consistent with the first half, supporting demand across the period.

The group is now 94% forward sold for FY26, only slightly below last year’s 96%. Total forward sales rose 11.2% to 11,395 homes, valued at £3.54bn, up from £3.14bn in 2025.

The private order book also grew modestly to 5,643 homes, with value up 1.7% to £2.28bn.

Barratt Redrow delivered 3,274 completions in the quarter (including 57 JV units), down from 3,717 last year — a decline attributed to an unusually strong FY25 quarter ahead of the end of Stamp Duty relief. Year‑to‑date completions stand at 10,718, broadly in line with the prior year.

The group reiterated its full‑year target of 17,200–17,800 completions, including around 600 JV homes.

The integration of Redrow continues to advance, with IT integration completing this month and synergy sales outlets opening ahead of plan. Two dual‑brand outlets launched at Curborough Fields, Lichfield, with a further six expected by year‑end and 22 more in FY27.

Cost synergies of £100m have now been confirmed, with £20m delivered in FY25 and £50m on track for FY26.

Land approvals fell sharply to 2,465 plots across 14 sites in the quarter, compared with 7,574 plots across 37 sites last year. Year‑to‑date approvals total 4,010 plots, significantly below the 15,301 approved at the same point in FY25.

The group now expects 7,000–9,000 approvals for the full year, down from previous guidance of 10,000–12,000, citing a more selective approach in light of geopolitical tensions and potential impacts on mortgage rates and build‑cost inflation.

Year‑end net cash is now forecast at £550m–£650m, around £150m ahead of previous guidance, driven by lower land investment and the timing of legacy remediation payments.

The second tranche of the group’s £100m share buyback programme is underway, with £33.3m deployed in the period.

The group maintained its FY26 build‑cost inflation guidance at around 2% for the year and 3% for the second half. However, it warned that higher energy costs are likely to feed into material prices in FY27.

The ability to switch between traditional and timber‑frame construction via its Oregon business provides additional flexibility.

Barratt Redrow once again secured the maximum five‑star HBF customer satisfaction rating, marking 17 consecutive years, a record unmatched in the UK housebuilding sector. All three brands also hold ‘Excellent’ Trustpilot ratings.

The group reiterated its full‑year guidance for completions and adjusted profit before tax, though it cautioned that visibility beyond FY26 remains limited due to the Middle East conflict and the potential for prolonged higher interest rates.

“Looking ahead, we have a proven track record of navigating uncertainty and remain confident in our financial strength and ability to adapt to changing market conditions,” Thomas said.

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