Published today, the findings suggest that around one million homes could be delivered by the target date — approximately 500,000 fewer than the government’s goal. This represents a worsening outlook since the full UK Housing Review was published in March, when researchers predicted a shortfall of around 25%.

Published annually by the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) and the University of Glasgow, the UK Housing Review provides expert analysis of developments in housing policy and investment. This latest briefing highlights the challenges social landlords and private developers face in their efforts to boost housing supply.

While the authors previously estimated that the social housing sector could deliver around 70,000 affordable homes annually, the latest briefing highlights how substantial investment requirements for existing homes are placing additional pressure on providers’ capacity to build.

These include the costs of meeting new energy efficiency requirements, upgrading heat networks and ensuring homes meet the Decent Homes Standard.

Private developers also continue to face challenging market conditions, with construction costs and development viability among the barriers to boosting supply.

Commenting on the findings, CIH chief executive Gavin Smart said: “These findings show that, while the government’s ambition is welcome, current delivery is not yet matching the scale of the challenge. If we are to build the homes the country needs, councils, housing associations and developers must have the certainty and investment necessary to increase supply. Social and affordable housing will be critical to achieving that goal.

“The upcoming Autumn Budget is an important opportunity for the government to back its housing ambition with the investment needed to boost delivery, bringing forward the funding announced at the Spending Review.”

Beyond the government’s housebuilding ambitions, the latest Autumn Briefing examines 15 topic areas covering a range of economic, political and social issues shaping housing policy across the UK.

The briefing explores how wider economic pressures, including constraints on public spending, are affecting housing policy and the private market. It also considers rent controls and their potential role in tackling housing affordability.

Elsewhere, the briefing assesses the implications of English devolution for housing, alongside the role of public perceptions and stigma in shaping attitudes towards social housing.

UK Housing Review editor Mark Stephens said: “We have a new prime minister, but once again the Autumn Briefing is launched in difficult economic circumstances and on the eve of the Autumn Budget. Much of the briefing reflects the pressures of interest rates, inflation and tight public spending.

“These circumstances contribute to making the government’s housebuilding target even more difficult to achieve. An additional challenge for the new administration will be to make English devolution work in these circumstances.”