Scotland ‘extremely likely’ to miss 2030 fuel poverty targets

Scotland 'extremely likely' to miss 2030 fuel poverty targets

Matt Cole, chair of the Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel

The Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel has hit out at the current Scottish Government approach to tackling fuel poverty as outdated, weak and without clear outcomes, adding that Scotland is extremely unlikely to meet its fuel poverty targets for 2030.

Publishing its statutory response to the Scottish Government’s Tackling Fuel Poverty in Scotland periodic report 2021-2024, the Panel highlighted that fuel poverty rates have risen sharply since targets were first set in 2019.

In the response, the Panel argues that tackling fuel poverty has not been given the same strategic prioritisation at Holyrood as other major policy areas with statutory targets, such as child poverty and climate change. It says that greater emphasis must be placed on the monitoring and evaluation of progress towards fuel poverty targets.

The latest figures paint a stark picture: more than a third of households in Scotland (34%), approximately 861,0001, are now classed as living in fuel poverty. A household is in fuel poverty if, after housing costs have been paid for, it needs more than 10% of its remaining income to pay for its energy needs and if after paying for its energy the household is left in poverty.

It’s considered in extreme fuel poverty if they have to spend more than 20% of its remaining income. Almost one in five (19.4%) or 491,0001 households are in extreme fuel poverty, a long way from the Scottish Government’s goal of reducing the figures to 15% for fuel poverty and 5% for extreme fuel poverty by 2030.

Matthew Cole, chair of the Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel, said: “We’re calling for the existing Fuel Poverty Strategy to be revised as a matter of urgency, or Scotland will not only miss its 2030 targets but is also unlikely to meet its 2035 targets. There is also need for a fuel poverty delivery plan that links boosting household income directly to meeting fuel poverty targets, and this delivery plan should be robustly monitored.

“While meeting the 2040 target of just 5% in fuel poverty and 1% in extreme fuel poverty is still possible, it will be a massive challenge requiring a whole new strategic approach. There are far too many people still having to choose between heating their homes and feeding their families.”

He said the Panel has heard some harrowing stories from energy advice agencies and other partners on the frontline across Scotland: “We have heard of people resorting to extremes so that they can access heat and power, with a resident in the Western Isles developing hypothermia after disconnecting the heating because they were unable to pay their bill.

“We have even heard reports of someone ripping up the floorboards in their home so that they could burn them as a heat source. These findings are shocking on their own, but are even more so when we consider the longer-term impacts living in fuel poverty can have, including on physical and mental health.”

The Panel’s new report acknowledges that the world is a very different place since the original targets were set in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and cost of living crisis driven by the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. It also acknowledges that although household energy rates are not within the Scottish Government’s direct control, the escalation of fuel poverty levels in Scotland means that tackling fuel poverty should be a greater priority than ever.

The report recognises that some progress has been made by the Scottish Government over the last three years, particularly in efforts to improve the energy efficiency of housing. There has been a measurable improvement in recent years with 56% of homes rated EPC band C or better in 2023 – an increase of around 3% from 2022.

There has also been significant Scottish Government support to increase income for low-income households, with some interventions directly related to annual assistance with energy costs.

However, there is still a long way to go to achieve the targets. The Panel has made a series of recommendations to the Scottish Government, urging it to:

  • Fulfil its commitment to revising its current Fuel Poverty Strategy by December 2026.
  • Accelerate the rate of improvements to make housing stock more energy efficient.
  • Increase awareness of how energy is used in homes to reduce waste and make costs clearer, as many households may be on unsuitable tariffs, paying more than necessary without realising it.
  • Set a clear vision for the GB energy market, push for reforms that take account of the needs of Scottish consumers, and protect those at risk of fuel poverty.
  • Target island and remote rural communities with tailored, co-ordinated action to cut fuel poverty where it hits hardest.

On behalf of the Panel, the chair emphasised: “It is essential that the revised strategy includes a clear, credible plan to cut fuel poverty and meet statutory targets. That means closer monitoring, better evaluation, and flexible policies that respond quickly to stalled progress or heightened need. We look forward to seeing the Scottish Government’s response in the coming weeks.”

Responding to the report, Gillian Campbell, director of the Existing Homes Alliance, said: “The Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel highlights that the number of households in fuel poverty rose from 24.6% in 2019 to 34% in 2023. This rising level of fuel poverty in renewables rich Scotland is deeply concerning.

“Poor energy efficiency remains one of the main drivers of fuel poverty, yet we know Scotland already has excellent fuel poverty and energy efficiency programmes that can make homes warmer, healthier and cheaper to heat. However, the scale of existing programmes doesn’t match current levels of need.

“The Scottish Government must commit to scaling up these effective schemes and providing long-term funding certainty so local authorities and partners can maximise their impact. Without that commitment, too many people will continue to face the impossible choice between heating and eating this winter.”

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