Published yesterday by a commission chaired by former housing minister and Downing Street chief of staff Gavin Barwell, Solving the Housing Crisis: A Plan to Make Homes More Affordable in Every Postcode brought together planners, housebuilders, investors, housing association executives, land agents and economists.

Although the report focuses on England, its section on the private rented sector draws heavily on Scotland. Among its recommendations on renting, the commission says the UK Government should address investor concerns by ruling out rent controls “in terms binding enough to restore investor confidence”. It proposes a statutory exclusion on rent controls, a ten-year agreement on rent indexation, and amendments to the Renters’ Rights Act.

The report describes rent control as “a classic populist policy” that appears attractive because it seems to make rents more affordable, but argues there is now “clear evidence” that it does not.

The report points to the emergency legislation introduced by the Scottish Government in September 2022, which froze rents within tenancies, followed by a 3% cap from April 2023. These measures were presented as a temporary cost-of-living intervention.

The commission says the effect on new supply was immediate. It claims around £700 million of Build to Rent investment was paused or withdrawn, and that some £2.5 billion of the Scottish pipeline was assessed as at risk. Of a pipeline of nearly 17,000 Build to Rent homes, it says only around 11% had been completed and let. In a survey of fourteen institutional investors holding some £15bn of assets, none rated Scotland as attractive for residential investment, and four rated it as un-investable under the conditions then prevailing, including three who already held Scottish assets.

On rents, the report argues the outcome was the opposite of what was intended. Because the controls applied within tenancies but not between them, it says landlords repriced at the point of new lets. Advertised rents across Scotland rose by around 12% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2022, including 14% in Glasgow and 15% in Edinburgh, compared with a ten-year compound annual growth rate of 5 to 6% in those cities.

The emergency measures have since been replaced by a permanent framework under the Housing (Scotland) Act 2025, in force from April 2026. It allows the designation of rent control areas where increases are limited to CPI plus one percentage point, up to a maximum of 6%. Build to Rent and mid-market rent homes have been expressly exempted by regulation.

The commission acknowledges that Scotland has kept rent control while exempting Build to Rent, but rejects the argument that this shows controls can work with carve-outs. It says an exemption granted by regulation can be withdrawn by regulation, leaving investors committing capital for a fifteen-year hold unable to price that risk. In its view, the exemption “accepts the economic case against controls while leaving the political risk in place”.

The report also notes that the Scottish Government’s own business and regulatory impact assessment for the exemption regulations acknowledges that the intention to introduce rent control has affected Scotland’s attractiveness as a place to invest in new homes for private rent.

It adds that international evidence is consistent with the Scottish picture, citing Berlin’s Mietendeckel, which was struck down as unconstitutional in 2021. The report says it was associated with a fall of around 50% in rental supply in the first half of 2020, while exempt new-build properties saw prices rise by 7.5% and availability increase by 18%.

Wider recommendations

The rent control proposal sits within a broader package on Build to Rent. The report also calls for stamp duty cuts for Build to Rent developments, including reinstating Multiple Dwellings Relief, standardised Section 106 agreements, and a Public Build to Rent programme using public land to deliver more social rent homes. It argues that Build to Rent should be established as a core housing tenure alongside housing for sale and social housing.

More widely, the commission recommends a three-year freeze on new regulatory burdens, a temporary shared equity scheme for first-time buyers of new, energy-efficient homes, a National Planning Service for major applications, and a national Green Belt review.

The report finds that half of the £76,000 rise in the cost of building a new home since 2020 comes from regulation, policy and tax. It says a 300-home Build to Rent scheme that would have made an £8 million profit in 2020 would now lose £6 million.

Mr Barwell said the commission’s recommendations were “not ‘Pick N Mix’”, warning that boosting demand without increasing supply “will help a few people at the expense of everyone else”, and that tackling viability without tackling demand “will make little difference”.

Gavin Barwell, chair of the Prosper UK Housing Commission, said: “I’m pleased that even before the report is published the Government has adopted one of our recommendations and the Conservatives have said they would implement another, but our recommendations are not ‘Pick N Mix’. Boosting demand without increasing supply will help a few people at the expense of everyone else, and tackling viability without tackling demand will make little difference. That is the view of the diverse group of industry experts who produced this report.”